Manufacturing Grew in September

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy notching a 16th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The September Manufacturing PMI registered 61.1 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the August reading of 59.9 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 16th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 66.7 percent, unchanged from the August reading. The Production Index registered 59.4 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point compared to the August reading of 60 percent. The Prices Index registered 81.2 percent, up 1.8 percentage points compared to the August figure of 79.4 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 64.8 percent, 3.4 percentage points lower than the August reading of 68.2 percent. The Employment Index returned to growth with a reading at 50.2 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher compared to the August reading of 49 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 73.4 percent, up 3.9 percentage points from the August figure of 69.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 55.6 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the August reading of 54.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 53.4 percent, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points compared to the August reading of 56.6 percent. The Imports Index registered 54.9 percent, an 0.6-percentage point increase from the August reading of 54.3 percent.”

Fiore continues, “Business Survey Committee panelists reported that their companies and suppliers continue to deal with an unprecedented number of hurdles to meet increasing demand. All segments of the manufacturing economy are impacted by record-long raw materials lead times, continued shortages of critical materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products. Global pandemic-related issues — worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, difficulties in filling open positions and overseas supply chain problems — continue to limit manufacturing growth potential. However, optimistic panel sentiment remains strong, with three positive growth comments for every cautious comment. Panelists are fully focused on supply chain issues in order to respond to the ongoing high levels of demand. Demand expanded, with the (1) New Orders Index growing, supported by continued expansion of the New Export Orders Index, the (2) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at very low levels, and the (3) Backlog of Orders Index staying at a very high level. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) grew slightly during the period, with a combined 0.6-percentage point increase to the Manufacturing PMI calculation. The Employment Index returned to expansion after one month of contraction, but hiring difficulties at panelists’ companies show no significant signs of abating. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories, and imports — continued to support input-driven constraints to production expansion, at higher rates compared to August. The Supplier Deliveries Index reversed a recent pattern of softening, while the Inventories Index continued to expand faster due to work-in-process inventory being held longer because of key part shortages, as well as more finished goods inventory being held due to downstream customer issues. The Prices Index expanded for the 16th consecutive month, at a faster rate in September, indicating continued supplier pricing power and scarcity of supply chain goods.

“All of the six biggest manufacturing industries — Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Transportation Equipment, in that order — registered moderate to strong growth in September.

“Manufacturing performed well for the 16th straight month, with demand, consumption and inputs registering month-over-month growth, in spite of continuing unprecedented obstacles and ever-increasing demand. Panelists’ companies and their supply chains continue to struggle to meet demand due to difficulties in hiring and a clear cycle of labor turnover, as workers opt for more attractive job opportunities. Disruptions from COVID-19, primarily in Southeast Asia, continue to have an impact on many industry sectors. Congestion at ports in China and the U.S. continues to be a headwind, as transportation networks remain stressed. Demand remains at strong levels, despite increasing prices,” says Fiore.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy notching a 16th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The 17 manufacturing industries reporting growth in September — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in September compared to August is Wood Products.