MHI Publishes Positive Forecast

MHI is optimistic about future outcomes and expects economic fundamentals to favorably support material handling equipment manufacturing (MHEM) expansion through 2015 and into 2016.

The MHEM forecast of material handling equipment manufacturing is released each quarter by MHI and looks 12 to 18 months forward to anticipate changes in the material handling and logistics marketplace.

Leading indicators are key economic variables that economists use to predict a new phase of the business cycle. A leading indicator is one that changes before the economy or one of its elements changes.

Several economic time series tend to anticipate the cyclicality of the MHEM time series. These indicators lead MHEM by 12 to 21 months. Therefore, some 12 to 21 months after these series peak or trough in their cycle, MHEM very likely will do the same.

“We expect economic fundamentals to favorably support material handling equipment manufacturing expansion through 2015 and 2016,” said Hal Vandiver, MHI executive consultant.

MHEM new orders grew 8.1% in 2014 and are forecasted to grow 9% for 2015 and and 7% in 2016.

This chart shows MHEM Forecast 2015-2016 vs. GDP

MHI is optimistic about future outcomes and expect economic fundamentals to favorably support MHEM expansion through 2015 and into 2016.

Material handling equipment shipments grew 4.5% in 2014 and are forecasted to grow 11% in 2015 and 11% in 2016 as backlogs are reduced. Domestic demand (shipments plus imports less exports) grew 5.4% in 2014 and are forecasted to grow 10-11% in 2015 and 9% in 2016.

Import growth in 2014 was 5%, up a point over 2013. Export growth was flat in 2014, down from 12.4% in 2012.